Extended Forecast
Valid: Sat 09 Nov 2024 06:00 to Sun 10 Nov 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 Nov 2024 20:34
Forecaster: TUSCHY

Two level 1 areas were issued for parts of the W/CNTRL Mediterranean mainly for heavy rain and a low-end tornado risk.

SYNOPSIS

There is not much change to the SWODY1 discussion with ongoing blocking over Scandinavia and an eastward departing wave over Libya. A broad area with very weak height gradients persists over the W-CNTRL Mediterranean, where the main DMC activity resides.

DISCUSSION

... W/CNTRL Mediterranean ...

Same story as the day before with dominating impacts of local/regional convergence zones and a S-ward drifting LL vortex N of the Western Basin. Level 1 areas cover the area with the highest concern of slow/erratic storm motion, clustering and heavy to locally excessive rainfall amounts. A low-end tornado risk exists along any well established convergece zone.

... W Black Sea ...

A SW-ward moving cold-core low shifts atop the NW Black Sea, where SST anomalies still exceed 3 K (17-18C). Enhanced coupled index points to a good environment for some temporal tightening of a LL vortex. IFS-ENS is down to 1025 hPa with a clustered member pool of barotropic low signatures while ICON-EPS has a few members even a bit lower regarding surface pressure. Short time-frame over the sea should limit time for organization. Nevertheless, convection could be accompanied by a few gusts in stom-force along the coast combined with heavy rain. Uncertainties that far out preclude an upgrade for now.

... SW France ...

A few onshore moving thunderstorms bring heavy rain on a local scale due to the anticipated slow propagation but final amounts stay well below any level threshold.