Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 24 Sep 2024 16:00 to Tue 24 Sep 2024 18:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 24 Sep 2024 16:17
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A MESOSCALE DISCUSSION for two areas was issued to highlight an ongoing and developing severe risk.

E-Black Sea:

Latest satellite data tracks a compact LLCC over the far E Black Sea, which seems to ingest drier/more stable stratified air from the NW and is placed beneath a plume of somewhat warmer mid-levels, which kept convective activity more on the short-lived side.

Along its NE fringe however, long-lived DMC activity with training coastal convection evolved and this activity brings heavy to excessive rain for the highlighted area. Flash flooding is likely as the vortex comes ashore during the overnight hours.

S Corsica and N Sardegna:

A long-lived complex of storms with temporal bowing signatures approaches this MD area from the W. Latest models show a gradual weakening trend as CAPE values start to diminish next and especially E of the islands, but this activity could still bring severe gusts, some hail and heavy rain to the highlighted area in the following 2-3h.
This activity could also train for some hours over N-Sardegna as 0-3 km shear increases to 15 m/s for the evening hours, assisting in better inflow from the W. Localized flash flooding is possible.