Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 22 Feb 2024 06:00 to Fri 23 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 21 Feb 2024 22:27
Forecaster: PUCIK/KUZMENKO
A level 2 was issued for NW France and BENELUX mainly for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for N France, S UK, BENELUX, Germany and Denmark mainly for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
... N France, S UK, BENELUX, Germany, Denmark ...
A fast-moving short-wave trough at the mid to upper troposphere is forecast to cross the region, embedded in the 75+ m/s jet-streak at 300 hPa. The trough will first move directly E towards W France, then rotate and turn towards Denmark, reaching S Sweden by 06 UTC. A rapid deepening of low on the frontal wave is forecast to begin around 09 UTC, as the trough approaches it. By the late evening and night hours, an intense pressure gradient is forecast behind the cold front with windspeeds approaching or exceeding 35 m/s at 1 km AGL. While this forecast covers the contribution of convection to severe weather, scattered to widespread severe non-convective wind gusts in a wide swath S of the center of the low are likely.
Strong synoptic-scale lift will contribute to the steepening of the mid-tropospheric lapse rates in the warm sector ahead of the cold front. Their overlap with the modest low-level moisture will result in marginal MLCAPE values up to 300 J/kg and low ELs. Curved hodographs with strong low-level shear are forecast ahead of the cold front in the late afternoon hours, with 0-500 m SRH values above 150 m2/s2 and 0-1 km bulk shear values ranging from 15 to 20 m/s. The shear is forecast to further increase towards the night hours, but the buoyancy will decrease with decreasing low-level moisture ahead of the front. A mix of strongly-forced linear segments (possibly forming a "line echo wave pattern") and low-topped supercells is forecast by the convection-allowing models. The storms will produce swaths of severe to isolated extremely severe wind gusts and tornadoes. Lvl 2 is introduced for the area, where the confidence is the highest concerning the occurrence of convective storm.
