Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 12 Feb 2024 06:00 to Tue 13 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 11 Feb 2024 22:02
Forecaster: KUZMENKO/PUCIK
A level 1 was issued over the Aegean Sea and W/SW Turkey for tornadoes, heavy rainfall and to lesser degree for marginally large hail.
Discussion
... extreme NW Greece, W and SW Turkey ...
A deep trough will move across the region during the forecast period. A band of enhanced low-level moisture will overlap with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates in the warm air ahead of it. Models unanimously simulate curved hodographs with strong low-level shear and purely streamwise vorticity in the inflow to the right-moving storms. Such conditions indicate tornado threat with storms. The strongest shear is forecast between 06 and 12 UTC, decreasing in the afternoon hours. There are some discrepancies regarding the height of the cloud base and degree of low-level CAPE, which may influence the final tornado probabilities.
The moist thermodynamic profiles and most of the CAPE in the warm part of the cloud point towards the threat of heavy rainfall, due to the strong on-shore flow causing the redevelopment of storms along the coastline. The highest threat of heavy rainfall is forecast in the early morning hours in the Antalya area.
Marginally large hail could also occur with stronger updrafts, but threat will be mitigated by marginal CAPE below -10 deg C and also concentration of shear in the lower part of the troposphere.
Further north, towards Bulgaria and Romania, storms may form during the morning/early afternoon hours. While the shear will be strong, the severe weather threat will be remain too marginal to warrant Lvl 1 given the uncertainty concerning CAPE.
... northern Algeria ...
Another region with strong low-level shear, but uncertain CAPE will be northern Algeria. Here, mostly straight hodographs are forecast and fast-moving storms may produce isolated severe wind gusts in case that optimistic ICON-EU scenario materializes. Given the uncertainty in CAPE, refrained from Lvl 1 at the moment.
