Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 08 Feb 2024 06:00 to Fri 09 Feb 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Feb 2024 07:37
Forecaster: PUCIK/KUZMENKO

A level 1 was issued over the Aegean Sea and SW Turkey for large hail.

DISCUSSION

... Iberia ...

Strong low-level flow, reaching over 25 m/s at 850 hPa level is forecast in a belt of enhanced low-level moisture with marginal CAPE values. While models show strongly curved hodographs with significant low-level shear as warm air advection begins, showers and storms will be at first elevated. Once the surface based convection begins, the wind profiles will be much less conducive to both tornadoes and severe wind gusts. While both these threats can not be completely ruled out, the risk seems too low to warrant a Lvl 1.

... SW Turkey ...

Models are in a very good agreement concerning the areas with enhanced risk of severe weather. Within the advancing short-wave trough, steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast, yielding locally up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. A combination of relatively (given the season) high values of CAPE below -10 deg C with 15 to 20 m/s of bulk shear will result in a threat of large hail with stronger and well-organised storms.

Across NW Turkey, the development of storms could be disrupted by a layer of dry air between 700 and 900 hPa. Here, the low-level shear is stronger, but lack of initiation will decrease the overall risk of tornadoes.