Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 03 Jan 2024 06:00 to Thu 04 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 02 Jan 2024 23:05
Forecaster: PUCIK/KUZMENKO

A level 1 was issued across N France for tornadoes and severe wind gusts.

A conditional level 1 was issued across NW Croatia mainly for tornadoes and marginally large hail.

DISCUSSION

... France ...

A fast moving short-wave trough is forecast to cross France during the day. Advection of steeper mid-tropospheric lapse rates, combined with synoptic-scale lift will contribute to the development of marginal CAPE. Scaterred storms are forecast to form over the area and rapidly move towards Germany. Forecast hodograph show abundant vertical wind shear, with 0-1 km bulk shear > 15 m/s and 0-500 SRH > 150 m2/s2 with slightly curved hodographs. More persistent and stronger updrafts may produce a tornado in such environment. Besides the tornadoes, 1 km flow around 25 m/s may easily result in at least marginally severe wind gusts in any stronger downdraft of the storm.

... Croatia to Hungary and W Romania ...

Models are not in a good agreement concerning the potential for convective storms over this area. The increase in the potential will be associated with an arrival of the short-wave trough from the west (the same that will cross France earlier on) in the late night to evening hours. The highest risk is forecast by ICON-EU with a pronounced risk of elevated storms over E Croatia, S Hungary and W Romania. Over the Adriatic coastline, substantial overlap of SBCAPE and strong deep- and low-level shear is forecast by this model. This is not seen by the other models though, ECMWF having CAPE profiles with lower toppes and more dry air in the mid-troposphere. The main discrepancies among the models are the timing of the short-wave trough and the dewpoints along the coastline. Both these factors should be monitored during the day to infer the potential realisation of ICON-EU scenario with non-zero tornado and marginally large hail threats. A low-end Lvl 1 is introduced to highlight the area, where this highly conditional risk will be present.