Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 20 Oct 2023 11:00 to Fri 20 Oct 2023 14:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 20 Oct 2023 10:27
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Tornado and damaging wind gust risk increasing across the area ***

Satellite data show a cloud free area to the lee of Apenines, which has allowed for some surface heating. Surface observations show that the 2m temperature has locally increased to 27 deg C, with dewpoints up to 18 deg C. Based on the model forecast soundings, this would allow for the presence of SBCAPE and a potential for development of surface-based supercells. Given very strong low-level shear, these would be bear significant risks of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. High-resolution, convection allowing models simulate the development of isolated supercells by 13 UTC. Trends in the 2m temperature and dewpoint need to be continuously monitored to further locate the areas with the highest severe weather risk over the next couple of hours.