Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 02 Aug 2023 12:00 to Wed 02 Aug 2023 15:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 02 Aug 2023 12:19
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

+ + + Risk of tornadoes and severe wind gusts increasing across West-central Germany and Southeast Benelux + + +

In the left exit region of the intense jet streak, low-topped storms have developed across southeast Netherlands, east Belgium and the Champagne region in France. Under the influence of strong shear in the 0-3 km layer, these storms are expected to organize into low-topped supercells and bow-shaped segments and intensify as they move eastward.

The consensus of NWP models suggests that low-level hodographs in the air-mass ahead of the storms will become more favorable for low-level rotation during the coming hours, boasting values of 150 to 250 m2/s2 of storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer. Surface winds backed to south or south-southeast head of the storms confirm this. As a result, a risk of tornadoes, including strong tornadoes, and of damaging winds will develop during the coming hours. In addition to the wind risk, marginally large hail of or 3 cm diameter may develop as well. The severe storm risk will likely persist beyond 15 UTC and move eastward.