Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 19 Jul 2023 18:00 to Wed 19 Jul 2023 22:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Jul 2023 18:39
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

*** Risk of very large to giant hail and damaging winds spreading into the Po Valley, Western Slovenia, and Istria, and persisting across Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia ***

Supercell storms with hail up to 10 cm in diameter have been ongoing across the Veneto and Friuli Venezia Giulia regions of Italy. These storms managed to survive for a while across the lower Adriatic coastal areas of these regions, but ultimately dissipated.

However, more storms are forming across the southern Alps of eastern Lombardia, Trentino/Alto Adige, Veneto, and Friuli Venezia Giulia and should have less trouble sustaining themselves across the lower lands of the Po Valley and the Adriatic Coastal regions. Given the unchanged near-ideal circumstances for very large hail formation characterized by very high CAPE and strong wind shear, the risk of very large to giant hail and damaging downbursts will rise in these low-lying areas.

Convection-permitting models are in good agreement that supercell storms will transition into a strong bow echo across the far northern Adriatic Sea with an attendant high risk of damaging winds in the 19-22 UTC window as the bowing system moves into Istria, far southwestern Slovenia, and the area around Trieste.