Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 19 Jul 2023 15:00 to Wed 19 Jul 2023 18:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 19 Jul 2023 14:55
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Risk of very large hail and severe wind gusts increasing over the area ***

Several storms have initiated across the region. Surface observations show dewpoints up to 23 deg C in the lowlands. High dewpoints result in very high CAPE values, as evidenced by 12 UTC Milan sounding with more than 5000 J/kg of MLCAPE. High-resolution convection allowing models show numerous isolated supercells moving SE, in the environment of 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE with long, linear hodographs and 25+ m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. The supercells will pose a threat of very large and perhaps even giant hail and severe wind gusts.