Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 18 Jul 2023 13:00 to Tue 18 Jul 2023 20:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 18 Jul 2023 12:58
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Very large hail and damaging wind gusts expected in the late afternoon to evening hours ***

A band of storms, which has formed in the WAA maximum along the boundary, is travelling from Switzerland towards Austria. Soon, the storms will encounter environment characterized by MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, 0-6 km bulk shear above 25 m/s and 0-3 km shear above 15 m/s. Dewpoints in excess of 19 deg C are observed over Slovenia, S Austria, N Croatia and N Italy. Explosive development of supercells is expected first and some of the storms may produce hail in excess of 8 cm in diameter. High-resolution, convection allowing models simulate upscale growth and increasing risk of damaging wind gusts, including gusts over 32 m/s, especially in a belt from NE Italy through S Austria, Slovenia into N Croatia. Severe wind gust risk will be supported by strong 0-3 km bulk shear, high CAPE and also T-Td spreads between 10 and 15 K over majority of the area. The situation needs to be closely monitored.