Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 12 Jul 2023 12:00 to Wed 12 Jul 2023 15:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 12 Jul 2023 12:14
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Threat of supercells capable of very large hail and severe wind gusts increasing ***

Convective coverage is increasing across the area. Vertical wind profiles support splitting supercells with threats of large hail and severe wind gusts. The expected increase in the intensity of storms within the next 3 hours is supported by the experimental rapid-update cycle version of the ICON-D2. The most intense storms may develop between France, S Switzerland and NW Italy, where forecast soundings show 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear between 25 and 30 m/s. Here, supercells may produce hail with diameter even approaching 10 cm. Upscale growth into bow echoes is forecast in the later hours and may be covered in another MD.