Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 11 Jul 2023 18:00 to Tue 11 Jul 2023 23:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 11 Jul 2023 18:47
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

During the last hour, storms have gradually aligned along a boundary crossing the Jura mountains from southwest to northeast and are intensifying. Because plentiful CAPE is in place ahead of the system and there is a high potential for evaporation of rain given the high boundary layer temperatures, these storms will likely further intensify and produce severe and locally extreme wind gusts in excess of 32 m/s.

Further north, across the Vosges mountains, a similar development is ongoing. It appears likely that these storms will likewise produce severe to extreme winds are they evolve into a linear system.

The storms will diminish in intensity only very late, given the continued potential for strong downdraft, and may not do so before midnight.