Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Tue 11 Jul 2023 12:00 to Tue 11 Jul 2023 14:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 11 Jul 2023 11:42
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Development of intense supercells expected within the next two hours ***

Elevated storms have developed across central France just to the west and northwest of a convergence zone. Along and ahead of the convergence zone, surface observations show dewpoints up to 22 deg C and temperature between 32 and 34 deg C. Here, 2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast by high resolution models. It is expected that the existing storms will become surface-based or that a new development will occur within the region along the convergence zone. The first surface-based storms may be more isolated and will rapidly become supercells given up to 25 m/s of 0-6 km bulk shear. Expect very large hail with any supercell in the environment of large CAPE values above - 10 deg C isotherm and high LCLs. High T and Tds spread also suggest potential for damaging wind gusts with supercells. Upscale growth into a bow-echo may happen rapidly if numerous supercell mergers occur and such development needs to be monitored.