Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 22 Jun 2023 12:00 to Thu 22 Jun 2023 15:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 22 Jun 2023 11:40
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Severe threat increasing rapidly in the next hours ***

Radar and satellite imagery show a rapidly developing storm east of Bonn that seems to have a deviant rightward motion. This storm is developing in the zone of easterly low-level flow and T/Td of 23/17. Tornado risk will be present with the storm (or other storms that develop in this airmass) in case it will be able to stay surface-based as it moves NE away from the front. Further storms are initiating to the south over France. These storms will spread NEwards and will likely become supercells. South of the warm front, 28 - 30 deg T and up to 20 deg of Td will contribute to substantial CAPE and moderately high LCLs. Expect threat of very large hail and damaging wind gusts here. The supercells that develop in warmer airmass need to be monitored for a potential upscale growth into a bow-echo.