Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 07 Jul 2022 10:00 to Thu 07 Jul 2022 13:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 07 Jul 2022 09:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MESOSCALE DISCUSSION was issued to highlight a gradually increasing risk for strong to severe convection between 11Z-19Z.
Please note: This MD does not cover the potential second round of thunderstorms during the evening/overnight hours, which approaches from the N.

Diurnal driven onshore flow from the Adriatic/Tyrrhenian Sea is on its way as seen in latest coastal wind reports. This circulation intensifies during the following hours. Latest dewpoint readings show 19 to 24C along the immediate coast but also mid tens along/within the mountains with Collescipoli f.ex. inidcating a 3C/3h increase during the morning hours.
In addition latest VIS loop has the first Cus along the crests.

Forecast soundings indicate 10-15 m/s DLS and CAPE aoa 1000 J/kg, so initiating storms pose a hail and isolated severe wind gust risk next to heavy rain. During the afternoon hours, as convection clusters and moves off the mountains towards the E/SE coasts of Italy, those storms enter an increasingly unstable air mass with MUCAPE up to 2 kJ/kg. As 0-3 km shear approaches 15 m/s over SE Italy we think that the most widespread (but still clear) severe risk exists in this area with maturing convection entering from the NW (severe wind gusts and large hail).
The activity diminishes from NW to SE until the evening hours.