Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 03 Jul 2022 09:00 to Sun 03 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Jul 2022 09:02
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MESOSCALE DISCUSSION was issued to highlight a risk of organized convection over N Germany during the afternoon hours onwards (15Z-00Z).

A few longer lived rotating updrafts could evolve during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. As NW-erly BL winds push a marine layer well inland with surface dewpoints aoa 15C, somewhat steepening mid-level lapse rates and temporal diabatic heating (probably too much suppressed in NWP guidance with aggressive WAA cloudiness) support patches of 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE. Shear is rather strong with DLS in the 20 m/s range (effective) and with intensifying 0-3 km shear up to 15-20 m/s ahead of a structuring cold front over far NW Germany. Some low to mid-level veering assists in enhanced helicity values, too.

CI remains a bit diffuse with models showing scattered showers during the afternoon hours, growing into a few discrete cells with rotating updrafts. Hail and severe wind gusts would be the main hazard with high LCLs and well mixed/dry subcloud layers.