Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 05 Jun 2022 10:00 to Sun 05 Jun 2022 12:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 05 Jun 2022 09:36
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MESOSCALE DISCUSSION (MD) was issued to update on current conditions.

2m dewpoints in the upper tens/lower twenties affect Lombardy and regions further SE/E with 2m temperatures soaring into the upper twenties. Peak temperature values are forecast to be in the 29-34 C range during the afternoon. Modification of the latest Milano sounding offers a gradually eroding cap with very fat mid-level CAPE profiles and a strongly veered wind profile with height.

Forecast soundings within the MD area still offer up to 1500 J/kg DCAPE with 0-3km lapse rates in excess of 8K/km and a deeply/well mixed low-tropospheric layer. Despite some advected cirrus clouds from the SW, good insolation/diabatic heating is anticipated and hence aforementioned BL conditions seem plausible.

The short wave can be tracked nicely by latest WV loop with substantial drying /an enhanced mid-level moisture gradient pushing NE over SE France into Switzerland (where CI is currently underway). This feature is about to approach the MD area from the SW and hence NWP guidance seems to be on the right track with CI over most of SE Switzerland.

Hence, we still anticipate a severe/damaging and long lasting MCS event with embedded bowing segments and extensive swaths of destructive gusts area possible (including the risk of large to very large hail). The MCS development is forecast between 10-12Z.