Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 03 Jun 2022 10:00 to Fri 03 Jun 2022 13:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 03 Jun 2022 10:25
Forecaster: TUSCHY

This MESOSCALE DISCUSSION was issued to highlight a decreased severe risk compared to the initial outlook.

The passing wave sparked scattered partially electrified convection over NW/CNTRL France which left the Bay of Biscay beyond midnight and moved NE since then with constant regeneration. Attendant rain cooled air also slowed down lifting surface warm front and NWP guidance catches up on additional latent heat release at mid-levels, which causes a lowering of the mid-level lapse rates in most parts of the MD area for the afternoon/evening hours.

Despite the expected lowered and/or delayed risk of CI, a thinning cirrus canopy during the following hours will assist in adequate destabilization for isolated to scattered CI with mainly a spotty rain threat, which continues well into the night.