Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 28 May 2022 07:00 to Sun 29 May 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sat 28 May 2022 08:07
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 2 was issued across eastern Albania across Kosovo, southern Serbia, northern FYROM into western Bulgaria for severe wind gusts, large hail and heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued across south-east Romania, Bulgaria, northern Turkey and northern Greece, FYROM, Kosovo, Montenegro, and southern Serbia for severe wind gusts, large hail, and heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued across northern Croatia for heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued across the southern Alpine region for large hail, severe wind gusts, and heavy rain.

A level 1 was issued across central Poland, north-wstern Ukraine, and southern Belarus for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Amplifying long-wave trough merges to a cut-off across the south Tyrrhenian Sea, associated with a developing coupled jet and intense height falls across Italy, the Adriatic, and the Balkans during the period. At lower levels, an ana cold front pushes into the northern Balkans. Central Europe is affected by the cyclonically sheared flank of a strong mid-level jet and an embedded short-wave trough.

DISCUSSION

Balkans

Surface cold front is currently moving south, with elevated storms ongoing across northern Croatia, where heavy rain is expected at the start of the day. South of the cold front, high instability will develop today due to a plume of steep lapse rates across the central Mediterranean spreading east and overlapping with rich low-level moisture.

Current thinking is that widespread convection initiation will occur along and south of the cold front. Increasing 0-3 km vertical wind shear will support multicells, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Bowing segments along a squall line seem to be possible to spread south-east into Bulgaria and northern Greece. Since the cold front will slow down, and warm air advection increases aloft of the cool air, heavy rain becomes a threat as well, especially when backbuilding storms develop.

Across Romania into Ukraine, storms are forecast to become elevated and spread east during the night.

Southern Alps

To the south of the Alps, moderate to high instability is expected today at the northern edge of the plume of steep lapse rates. As the mid-level trough across Europe amplifies, height falls set in, also due to some warm air advection south of the cold front. Main limiting factor for convection is rather dry air around the LFC in combination with increasing vertical wind shear. However, models indicate storms across the southern Alps that will likely become well-organized with some supercells possible. Large or very large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast.

Central Italy

High instability and weak shear are forecast across Italy. Some QG lift is expected and profiles will moisten over time, with convection initiation likey across the mountains. With stronger storms, some large hail and heavy rain reports are expected today.

Poland to Belarus

Steep lapse rates are forecast along the cyclonically sheared flank of an impressive mid-level jet. shallow showers and thunderstorms are forecast to spread east ahead of an embedded short-wave trough. In the high-shear, low-CAPE environment, some bowing elements are possible, capable of severe wind gusts. Additionally, some marginally large hail and tornadoes are not ruled out. Main limiting factor for tornadoes is the rather high cloud base.