Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 27 May 2022 08:00 to Sat 28 May 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 27 May 2022 08:00
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across southern Russia for severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued across southern Alpine region and northern Balkans for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Zonal flow across Europe will continue, with an extended trough across Scandinavia and a strong mid-level jet across central Europe. Across the south-west Mediterranean, a cut-off trough is located. On Friday, warm air advection takes place ahead of the cut-off trough and height falls are forecast south of the Alps. As the European trough amplifies and starts to connect with the cut-off trough, the mid-level jet will move south as well.

DISCUSSION

Southern Alpine area

A plume of steep mid-level lapse rates is present ahead of the Mediterranean cut-off trough. Along the northern edge of this warm air mass, rich low-level moisture is present along a frontal boundary that extents near the Alps and into the northern Balkans. Some diurnal heating will be sufficient to result in MLCAPE and storms are forecast over the mountains in the afternoon. Most of these stsorms are expected to be weakly organized due to limited CAPE-shear overlap.

Later in the period, the mid-level jet progresses south, resulting in increasing deep-layer shear. Additionally, ongoing warm air advection and also increasing frontal lift ahead of the progressing cold front over the Alps will causde increasing potential for convection initiation.

These storms have a higher potential to organize given 10 to locally 15+ m/s deep layer shear. Main limiting factor is the weak instability due to some clouds left until noon. However, brief supercells are expected as well as some clusters that form bowing elements. Large hail and severe wind gusts are forecast with the storms that move south-east during the evening and into the night.

Southern Russia

A cold front moves east across southern Russia in the next hours. Weak instability is present ahead of the cold front that overlaps with strong 0-3 km vertical wind shear. Some well-organized storms are forecast capable of producing severe wind gusts. In strong low-level shear, and backing surface winds resulting in curved low-level hodopraphs, a few tornaodes are also not ruled out.

Baltic States into Belarus

A high-shear, low-CAPE environment is forecast today just north of the mid-level jet axis. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected with a potential of severe wind gusts and a low potential of tornadoes.

Southern Balkans into Turkey

Storms across the mountains form in a weakly-sheared environment. Stronger storms can produce some marginally severe hail and wind gusts.