Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 20 May 2022 16:00 to Fri 20 May 2022 18:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 20 May 2022 16:05
Forecaster: PUCIK

... Severe weather outbreak ongoing across Germany ...

Tornadoes and large hail have been reported with the intense supercells across western Germany. New cells have initiated over south-central Germany, including a linear segment.

While all severe weather hazards will be possible across the area, there is a distinct north-south and west-east gradient concerning the likelihood of individual hazards. The tornadoes will be most likely across the northwestern part of the highlighted area, where the strongest low-level shear and the lowest LCLs are. Here, the threat of large hail may be limited by marginal CAPE values. The highest likelihood of severe wind gusts will be over the southern and eastern part of the area, where high LCLs and steep low-level lapse rates promote strong downdrafts. Thus, supercells over nothern Germany will likely transition from tornado to severe wind gust production as they move eastward, including a potential for upscale growth into one or more bowing segments.

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