Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 May 2022 10:00 to Wed 18 May 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 17 May 2022 10:06
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across the central Balkans for large hail, severe wind gusts and extreme rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across central Italy for large hail, severe wind gusts and extreme rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across southern Turke for large hail.

A level 1 was issued across northern Iran for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across north-western France for severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

A trough amplifies across eastern Europe, with cold and dry air spreading south. Showers and some thunderstorms can be expected within this trough with some graupel possible. Along the peripheriy of the trough, a mid-lvel jet with embedded vort-maxima affects the Balkans and south-eastern Europe, where some low-level moisture is present that overlaps with steep lapse rates.

Ridging is expected over western Europe, where warm air advec tion sets in ahead of a progressing Atlantic trough late in the period.

DISCUSSION

Central Balkans, Italy, southern Turkey

Rather rich low-level moisture overlaps with steep lapse rates at the southern flank of the east-European trough. Clear skies in the morning and strong diurnal heating resulted in MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. First storms have formed and due to weak CIN, scattered to widespread storms are expected especially over the mountains.

Overall severe potential is limited. However, vertical wind shear is expected to increase locally to 10-15 m/s in the lowest 6 km, and some storms may become rather intense, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Locally, also some heavy rain is forecast. A level 1 was introdiced for the areas with expected high storm coverage and best CAPE shear overlap. Storms are expected to decay over most places, but ahead of the approaching cold front, some more storms are forecast over the north-eastern Balkans through-out the night.

Northern Iran

Storms are expected in the afternoon across the mountains in a weakly capped, slightly unstable profile. Vertical wind shear of 15 m/s allows for some storm organization, and some stronger storms are forecast, capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts.

North-western France

Although models disagree on the coverage of storms within the warm air advection regime, scattered storms are forecast along the nose of the warm air to form late in the afternoon. Vertical wind shear is araounf 10 m/s in the lowest 3 km, and some bowing elements are not excluded in the evening, when CAPE is still around 500 J/kg. Severe wind gusts are the main threat, but large hail is also not ruled out. LAter in the night, storms will likely turn elevated and spread east. Severe potential is expected to be fairly low.