Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 14 Feb 2022 06:00 to Tue 15 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 13 Feb 2022 22:53
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS

High geopotential across the Atlantic Ocean that ridges into the Azores region is flanked by a strong mid-level polar vortex across centered across northern Canada. Within a highly baroclinic zone with rapidly increasing mid-level winds, repeated explosive cyclogenesis is expected to affect Europe.

Ahead of the strengthening mid-level zonal jet, a short-wave trough amplifies due to downstream development across western Europe on Monday. Wave breaking is expected at the end of the period with the amplified trough starting to form a cut-off low across the west Mediterranean at the end of the period.

Quasi-geostrophic forcing ahead of the west-European trough will especially affect the west Mediterranean. Moist and slightly instable air masses will spread into western Europe in the range of the trough. Farther east, mid-level ridging and dry low-level air masses will not allow for deep moist convection.

Across south-east Europe, mid-level vort-maxima will travel east, but low-level moisture is very limited and thunderstorms are not forecast.

DISCUSSION

West Mediterranean

A cold front is expected to move across the west Mediterranean on Monday. Ahead of the front, a moist air mass will be affected by frontal lift, and weak instability will develop. As vertical wind shear will be not too strong, severe convection is not expected along the cold front, although some severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado are not ruled out. Storms will spread east during the night.
In the wake of the cold front, steep lapse rates will develop near the trough’s base, and additional storms are forecast across the west Mediterranean. MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg will allow for some stronger storms, and a few waterspouts are not excluded.

Bay of Biscay, France

Within the base of the trough, a maritime, well-mixed air mass spreads into France. In response to weak diurnal heating, some showers and thunderstorms will likely develop. Weak vertical wind shear and marginal CAPE limit severe potential.