Storm Forecast
Valid: Sat 12 Feb 2022 06:00 to Sun 13 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 11 Feb 2022 17:40
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A zonal flow affects northern Europe. A central European short-wave trough moves east into Russia, followed by weak mid-level ridging in a polar air mass. Upstream, an amplifying Atlantic trough moves slowly to western Europe, associated with a south-westerly flow and warm air advection across much of Europe. Southern Europe is dominated by a weak mid-level trough and subtle flow. A strong south-westerly jet is located across the east Mediterranean ahead of this trough, though.

Unfavorable conditions will limit any higher potential for convective storms development across Europe. Where steep lapse rates near the trough axis of the east European trough are located, very low moisture is present. Weak instability near a weak trough across the Aegean region is very shallow beneath a strong inversion. A very moist and saturated air mass across north-eastern Europe is partly unstable, but again, only shallow convection is likely due to stable lapse rates at mid-levels and weak lift. Some storms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary across the eastern Atlantic late in the period. These storms are not expected to reach the forecast area until Sunday morning.

Finally, a few showers may develop across the southern Iberian Peninsula in a warm air mass in response to some topographic forcing. These showers can also produce some thunder as indiacted by and equilibrium level temperature around -20 C. In weak vertical wind shear and marginal CAPE, severe potential is very low.