Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 07 Feb 2022 06:00 to Tue 08 Feb 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 Feb 2022 00:14
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the east Adriatic for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

A digging trough crosses the Alps, Adriatic and Balkans today, starting to develop a closed mid-level vortex across the Aegean on Tuesday. A moist air mass dominates eastern Europe within the mid-level trough, and showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast in a weak-CAPE regime. Most of the western and central Mediterranean is still affected by cold air advection and strong Mistral winds. Upstream ridging affects western Europe, with frontal systems of an intense low across Iceland spreading into the British Isles and Scandinavia during the period.

DISCUSSION

Western Balkans and Aegean

Associated with a tropopause fold, steepening low-level lapse rates will spread into the Balkans. These lapse rates can overlap with some higher humidity ahead of a cold front that moves south-east. Latest models indicate weak low-topped CAPE and moderate vertical wind shear of about 10 to 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km and locally favorable low-level curved hodographs. However, instability is really marginal what keeps severe potential low.

Main threats will be severe wind gusts along bowing lines of the narrow cold-frontal rain band. A tornado is not ruled out due to the locally favorable low-level shear. Activity will spread south-east where weaker moisture is expected, and current thinking is that the activity will cease. However, it is not ruled out that storms can continue to spread into Greece as well.

Across the Aeagean, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the cold front late in the period. Again, severe wind gusts are not ruled out, however, a threat level is not issued due to marginal instability.