Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 12 Oct 2021 06:00 to Wed 13 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 11 Oct 2021 20:53
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for parts fo Greece and Turkey for large hail, excessive convective precipitation, severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for parts of Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria
for large hail, excessive convective precipitation, severe convective wind gusts and tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

The cut-off low with a center currently (21z) over the Ionian Sea, is moving fast east and is expected to cross Greece on Tue 12/10. The southern leading edge of the trough will be the main host for DMC events in S-E Greece and W Turkey, but also Bulgaria will be affected by a few storms.

In western Europe, a strong ridge will continue to inhibit convection, but more to the east, in Central Europe and the Baltic Sea, another trough is about to provide lift to unstable air masses. A few lightnings cannot be ruled out, but mostly offshore.

DISCUSSION

.... Greece, Turkey and Bulgaria ....

As the mid/upper-level blob of high PV in North Ionian Sea is progressively becoming less organized, it moves fast east and provides lift to very unstable air masses. With PBL mixing ratios up to 15 g/kg in the Aegean Sea, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 15-20 m/s DLS with locally enhanced SREH0-3km, storms will be able to organize in MCSs or isolated supercells. Large hail and severe convective wind gusts will be the main threat, mostly for coastal areas of Greece and Turkey. Hail up to 3-4 cm in diameter is possible in the Greek islands and the west coasts of Turkey. A few waterspouts are expected close to the coasts, given the high intability, the local peaks of SREH0-1km and the LLS.
Storm activity will be reduced during the afternoon but it may continue in the Black Sea with the flash flood threat being the main concern for the Turkish and Bulgarian coasts.