Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Fri 13 Aug 2021 19:00 to Sat 14 Aug 2021 01:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 13 Aug 2021 18:48
Forecaster: TUSCHY

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION for a

life-threatening multi day excessive rain event along the E/SE coast of the Sea of Azov.

A slow moving depression finally emerged from the Black Sea and stalls along the SE coast of the Sea of Azov. Limited surface data lowers confidence of the exact placement of the depression's center. However, a quasi-stationary thunderstorm complex over the far SE Sea still tries to wrap around the vortex, which supports the NWP guidance, placing the center just along the SE border of the Sea of Azov (W of Krasnodar).

Rising thickness to its north will preclude any substantial northward drift, so its final location could be partial offshore and onshore. SSTs of 27-28 C (running 2-3 K above climate) should support repeated thunderstorm development. Dependant on how much the center moves offshore and how much convection can wrap around its center, temporal vortex intensification is possible, lowering MSLP on a temproral scale, supporting bands of heavy showers/thunderstorms which move ashore. In case the center moves more offshore than currently anticipated, the convective pattern has to be monitored for any subtropical development.

All models show a strong signal for extreme rainfall amounts during the following 12h (until 06Z with 100-250 l/sm), during the following 24h (until 18Z on the 14th with 150-300 l/sm) and with multi day amounts until Monday in the 250-500 l/sm range. This is a serious and life-threatening situation for population centers like Yeysk, Primorsko-akhtarks, Temryuk and Kerch.

Please note: The validity of this MD does not reflect the duration of this rainfall event. It is just an update on an ongoing event.