Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Mon 09 Aug 2021 12:00 to Mon 09 Aug 2021 16:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 09 Aug 2021 12:20
Forecaster: BEYER

In a convergent surface flow storms have developed in a really moist environment with dewpoints of 22 deg and locally even higher. PWAT values are 45 mm and above.

Models did not simulate much convection so far. But now that those storms have formed they are forecasted to stay quasistationary for a longer time, fed by LL moisture from the Black Sea. Given the persistancy and the high PWAT values excessive precipitation and subsequent flooding are possible within the next couple of hours.