Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 05 Aug 2021 15:00 to Thu 05 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 05 Aug 2021 15:24
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Intense storms have initiated over the southern Carpathians, southwestern Transylvania, on an eastward moving cold front in an environment of moderate 1000-2000 J/kg CAPE and very strong deep-layer shear, with 0-6 km bulk shear of 30-35 m/s. Over the Transylvanian Plateau, the boundary layer is deep and dry, which will create a high risk of damaging winds. This convection will likely develop eastward and northeastward. Given the shear and evaporative cooling potential, a bow echo with damaging winds may form. Other hazards include (very) large hail and heavy rainfall may occur.

In the northern portion of the indicated region, storm coverage ahead of the front will increase as well. With these storms, which include supercells, large hail and severe wind gusts are the predominant risks, along with locally heavy rainfall.