Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 05 Aug 2021 13:00 to Thu 05 Aug 2021 17:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 05 Aug 2021 13:22
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

At 12 UTC, a deepening low pressure area was located over north-central Hungary. On its eastern flank, north and east of the Carpathians strong westward advection of moisture is taking place.

As a result, dew point temperatures have risen to around 20°C across far western Ukraine and far southeast Poland. In combination with boundary layer heating, very little CIN should remain at this moment. Elevated convection reaching the western and central portions of the area from the south will likely become surface-based soon. The first signals of that happening include a recent intensification of lightning activity.

Given that about 15 m/s shear is present in the 0-3 km layer and MLCAPE of about 2000 J/kg should have formed, initiating storms will transition to intense supercells with a risk of very large hail and local severe winds.
Across the southeastern portion of the MD area, convective initiation will likely take place a little later as some CIN will likely remain there a bit longer.

The tornado risk will be somewhat limited initially because of limited low-level shear. However, as hodographs lengthen until 18 UTC, the risk of tornadoes, including strong or even intense tornadoes, will increase. In addition, storms may organize into bowing segments with a risk of widespread damaging winds.