Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Sun 01 Aug 2021 14:00 to Sun 01 Aug 2021 19:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 01 Aug 2021 14:40
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

Across the outer area drawn, a strongly sheared (25 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear) and moderately unstable air-mass (~1000-2000 J/kg) is in place in which several thunderstorms have initiated. Some of these storms are supercells and bear a threat of large hail and damaging gusts.

Across the inner area over Slovakia and northern Hungary, surface winds from the east to southeast combined with modeled wind field aloft, suggests that high storm-relative helicity is present of 200-250 m2/s2 in the 0-1 km layer. The combination with relatively low cloud bases in this area suggests the risk of an isolated, potentially strong, tornado or two.

Further south, large hail and severe wind gusts are the dominant hazards.