Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 28 Jul 2021 12:00 to Wed 28 Jul 2021 14:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 28 Jul 2021 12:06
Forecaster: PUCIK

A long-lived right-moving storm has initiated across S Germany and is moving across the N Alpine rim. Given its radar and satellite presentation, it is likely severe with threats of (very) large hail and severe wind gusts. Surface observations show weak northerly wind ahead of the storm with dewpoints around 17 deg C. Storm will likely maintain its intensity as it treks eastward in an environment characterized by 1500 - 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0-6 km bulk shear of 20 to 25 m/s based on the output of high resolution numerical models. Upscale growth so far may be limited by the forcing from the upper trough lagging behind the storm currently, but can occur towards the end of the period as the cold pool of the cell deepens and provides stronger lift.