Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 08 Jul 2021 13:00 to Thu 08 Jul 2021 18:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Jul 2021 13:55

A low-pressure area has formed in the lee of the Alps centered near near St. Pölten, Austria. Evelated convective storms that have moved northeastward across the Alps and are now located near the low-pressure area. They will likely become surface-based and intensify over the next hours. Given the environment that boasts steep lapse rates above the boundary later and high buoyancy, and deep-layer shear of 20-25 m/s, one or more supercells will probably develop. These should be capable of producing large to very large hail, extreme rainfall, severe wind gusts. A risk of (possibly strong) tornadoes exists as well, given that strong directional low-level shear is in place and 100 - 200 m2/s2 of storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km layer is forecast to develop during the late afternoon and evening.

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