Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 08 Jul 2021 12:00 to Thu 08 Jul 2021 16:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Jul 2021 12:35

In response to intense forcing for upward motion and solar heating, convective storms have formed over Piemonte and are initiating across Lombardia and adjacent regions across the Western Po Plain. These storms develop in an environment characterized by strong 20-30 m/s deep-layer shear and ample instability (1500 - 3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Some storms will likely turn into supercells with a risk of large or very large hail (5 cm or more), severe winds, and heavy rainfall. Although low-level shear is somewhat marginal, strong buoyancy close to the surface will favor vortex stretching suggesting that a tornado or two could form.

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