Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Thu 24 Jun 2021 13:00 to Thu 24 Jun 2021 15:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Jun 2021 13:01
Forecaster: GATZEN

Ahead of deepening low pressure across the Alps, a strengthening southerly flow advects hot air masses into Slovakia. To the north, a frontal boundary across southern Poland has merged to an outflow boundary of an MCS that passed the area to the noth-west in the morning. Initiation is starting alon the broad convergenze zone.

Latest observations indicate high dewpoints north of the boundary (above 20°C). MLCAPE is forecast to be in the 3 to 4 KJ range, along with moderate deep layer shear around 15 m/s. Storms are expected to organize into multi- and supercells moving NE or E. Strong storm-relative inflow is expected from the north-east into the building storm cluster and rapid upscale growth is forecast.

Main threats will be large or very large hail along with severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation. Within the next hours, incraesing vertical shear to 20 m/s will increase the potential for large hail.

In the evening, another severe weather event is expected due to approaching activity from the south-west.