Valid: Wed 09 Jun 2021 06:00 to Thu 10 Jun 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 08 Jun 2021 20:07
A level 1 was issued across northeastern Spain mainly for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Carpathians, southern Italy, Greece and Russia mainly for heavy rainfall.
A level 1 was issued across Turkey mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Synoptically rather quiescent situation is forecast across Europe with a ridge over Iberia and northern Sea and a pool of low geopotentials across majority of central and eastern Europe. Stronger flow at mid to upper troposphere is confined only to the parts of the Mediterranean.
From eastern France towards Russia, modest lower tropospheric moisture will combine with lapse rates barely reaching 6 K/km, resulting in skinny CAPE profiles. Together with mean flow mostly below 5 m/s, slow-moving storms with strongest updrafts in the lower troposphere are anticipated, supporting heavy rainfall threat. Marginally large hail may also occur with the strongest cells.
Stronger shear and steeper mid-tropospheric lapse rates are forecast over eastern Spain and Turkey, where 0-6 km bulk shear around 15 m/s will allow for better convective organisation, including a potential for some transient supercells. Given steeper mid-tropospheric lapse rates and higher LCLs, large hail and severe wind gusts will be the dominant threats over these two areas. Convective initiation is uncertain over eastern Spain, where high CIN values are forecast especially over the lowlands.