Storm Forecast
Valid: Sun 17 Jan 2021 06:00 to Mon 18 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 17 Jan 2021 00:20
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across the north-east Mediterranean for extreme rainfall.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

The large south-east European trough remains on Sunday whereas the north-European blocking weakens. The delta of the Atlantic jet stream expands to western Europe and a short-wave trough will move into the west Mediterranean where it moves around the south-eastern trough. This is associated with the advection of maritime air masses into western Europe.

Main convective potential still exists ahead of the south-east European trough. Strong south-westerly flow is expected ahead of a cold front that advects upslope over southern Turkey and along the shores of Syria and Lebanon. Especially in the morning hours, a parallel-stratifom MCS is forecast along the front that spreads east during the period. Skinny CAPE profiles support a continued threat of heavy rain. Limited moisture is forecast to limit thunderstorm potential farther inland.

Upstream, a short-wave trough enters the central Mediterranean during the day. Strong QG forcing will allow for some steeper lapse rates, and weak CAPE can develop due to some moisture over the sea. Given only marginal CAPE, severe thunderstorms are not forevast although vertical wind shear is rather high with about 15 m/s in the lowest 6 km.