Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 15 Jan 2021 06:00 to Sat 16 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC
Issued: Fri 15 Jan 2021 00:12
Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Downstream of a ridge across western Europe, a large trough covers eastern Europe, with several vort-maxima traveling around its periphery. The trough is co-located with dry low-level air that limits thunderstorm potential. Best chances are across the Mediterranean, but a few lightning strikes are not ruled out across the Black Sea as well.

First storms are forecast over the Tyrrhenian Sea that is affected by an intense upper vort-max. Moving over southern Italy, this vort-max will also affect the Ionian Sea and southern Greece late in the peeriod. The potential for storms is quite marginal, mostly due to the limited low-level moisture and rather weak mid-level lapse rates. Weak CAPE and a high equilibrium-level temperature are forecast for this reason. Although vertical wind shear is rather strong, with about 15 m/s in the lowest 3 km, organized storms are not expected.

Over the Aegean Sea and to the south of Turkey, another vort-max is expected during the day that ejects from the jet across northern Africa. It will affect a relatively moist air mass and modest lapse rates. CAPE may reach some 100 J/kg in the evening and overnight. Storms that form are forecast to be rather weak given weak vertical wind shear.