Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 19 Oct 2020 06:00 to Tue 20 Oct 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 19 Oct 2020 02:19
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued across S Turkey for large hail, wind gust and excessive rain chances.

A level 1 was issued across the eastern Black Sea region mainly for excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.


DISCUSSION

A ridge is situated over central and southern Europe, with Atlantic low pressure arriving to the Iberian Peninsula and another large low over Finland and Russia. A satellite trough of the latter moves into the eastern Black Sea and Caucasus with CAPE up to 1500 J/kg and coastal lifting could trigger excessive convective rainfall. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible.

Across Turkey marginal CAPE combines with 20 m/s DLS in the afternoon, but the relatively dry air may inhibit strong convection. A small region in the south of Turkey with 2000 J/kg MLCAPE that appears to be not capped but dry in low levels may be able to initiate convection with help of orographic lifting. The DLS of over 20 m/s then could easily create a supercell with threats of large hail, severe wind gusts, excessive rain and wind gusts.