Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 06 Aug 2020 06:00 to Fri 07 Aug 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 05 Aug 2020 23:11
Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued across southern Austria ans northeastern Italy for local extreme rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across south-western Balkans for extreme rainfall.

SYNOPSIS

Blocking affects Europe, with a cut-off trough across the south Adriatic and ridging from Iberia across central Europe towards western Russia. At low levels, rich moisture across Russia is advected westward towards the Alps. Lapse rates are rather weak across most places.

DISCUSSION

South-eastern Alps

In a moist environment with skinny CAPE profiles and weak easterly flow, stormas are forecast to develop over the mountain tops. Slow moving storms will locally produce high amounts of rain and small hail.

South-western Balkans

Close the cut-off center, rich moisture and moderate lapse rates are present, with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Storms are forecast in a weakly sheared environment and will be capable of excessive precipitation. Towards the south, stronger deep layer shear will allow for some multicells, with a increased potential of large hail. Due to limited CAPE above 600 hPa, effecteive shear is forecast to be wel belo the strong 0-6 km shear that is about 20 m/s.