Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 29 Jul 2020 13:00 to Wed 29 Jul 2020 17:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 29 Jul 2020 13:44
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Isolated threat of severe storms will persist over the area over the next couple of hours ***

Remote sensing data reveal a severe, right-moving storm that tracked from Poland to Ukraine with its lightning activity increasing in the recent 30 minutes. To the south of the cell, an outflow boundary is travelling towards south. Except for this cell, other attempts at convective initiation have failed so far, though Cu field is still growing, especially close to the Carpathians.

Surface observations show dewpoints ranging from 17 to 20 deg C over the area, with the highest values over southeastern Slovakia and northern Hungary. 12 UTC sounding observation from Budapest and Poprad confirm the presence of strong mid-tropospheric flow. Thus, should convective initiation succeed, resultant storms would likely become supercells capable of severe weather.

That said, the coverage of convective initiation may be lower than expected in the outlook given the lack of synoptic-scale lift. Local upslope flow regimes and outflow boundaries should be monitored for signs of initiation in the next couple of hours. Threat will shift gradually towards the east as dry air is being advected from west.

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