Mesoscale Discussion

Mesoscale Discussion
Valid: Wed 29 Jul 2020 13:00 to Wed 29 Jul 2020 17:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 29 Jul 2020 13:16
Forecaster: PUCIK

*** Severe weather threat is expected to increase over the course of next few hours over southern Austria, Slovenia and northeastern Italy ***

In the past hour, convective initiation has been ongoing over the main Alpine range. To the south, surface observations reveal presence of very moist airmass with dewpoints ranging from 17 to 20 deg C and southeasterly to easterly flow. 12 UTC Rivolto sounding shows 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE with 15 m/s of 500 hPa flow aloft. Combined with around 5 m/s easterly to southeasterly flow, 0-6 km bulk shear values are likely around 20 m/s over the highlighted area. Recent development increases confidence in a scenario with southward propagating supercells spreading from southern Austria towards Slovenia and perhaps northeastern Italy. This scenario is also still simulated by the convection allowing models. Large to very large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation will all be possible with these storms.

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