Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 15 Jul 2020 06:00 to Thu 16 Jul 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 14 Jul 2020 20:56
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued across northern Russia mainly for damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across northern Russia mainly for excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts and large hail.

A level 1 was issued across northwestern Algeria and northern Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across Sicily mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued across parts of northern Turkey mainly for large hail.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

A pool of low geopotentials will dominate the weather pattern across much of Europe with a ridge stretching over the Atlantic. Thunderstorms are forecast in three main areas:

1. In a trough stretching from Denmark through Germany into N Italy. Weak cold front is forecast to cross Central Europe during the day, initiating scattered to widespread convection. Due to very modest combination of lapse rates and lower tropospheric moisture, only skinny CAPE profiles are simulated, that will be further limited by a presence of stable layer above 600 hPa. Weak updrafts are forecast, which will be organised into clusters with DLS around 10 m/s. Likelihood of severe weather will be very low given to the poor thermodynamic environment.

2. Underneath subtropical jet from northern Africa through southern Italy into Turkey. MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg will combine with DLS around 20 m/s over parts of the southern Europe. Well organised storms, including supercells, are forecast with threats of large hail and perhaps severe wind gusts.

3. Over Russia, especially near the warm front extending from the surface low towards northeast. CAPE and shear is forecast to increase towards the eastern edge of the forecast domain, where steep lapse rates will combine with 0-3 km shear around 20 m/s, yielding a pronounced risk of damaging wind gusts and large hail, as in the previous forecast period. More isolated storms will be possibe further south in the warm sector. As storms progress northward, they will cross the warm front and become elevated. There will be a window of opportunity for storms to produce a tornado as they tap into inflow with higher SRH just north of the warm front before becoming elevated. The western extent of the Level 1 will mostly bear risk of heavy rainfall in the more weakly sheared environment.