Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 15 Jun 2020 06:00 to Tue 16 Jun 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 15 Jun 2020 01:02
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across southern Russia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS/ DISCUSSION

Europe is covered by several low pressure systems. The largest is situated over the Celtic Sea and is associated with minor instability across France, UK and Ireland. The most intense low moves from the Baltic States to Sweden with unstable air producing thunderstorms along the occlusion over the Baltic Sea, and along the cold front digging into warm and humid air across Belarus and surroundings. The lack of wind shear is not beneficial for severe weather. Small surface/mid level lows generating convection are found also across the western Balkan, eastern Hungary, and southwestern Black Sea. In these areas, low levels are humid, but lapse rates weak. CAPE is not high, not capped, DLS under 10 m/s and storm motion very slow, which in some places can amount to tens of mm of convective rainfall. The largest CAPE on the map is found to the northeast of the Black Sea, where 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE can build up with DLS just over 10 m/s. This will likely produce organized convection with some updraft rotation, with large hail and severe wind gusts. However, the dynamic lifting (mainly by the Black Sea trough) is weak, dry air advected westward by the Russian high creating a dryline front. The main reason for staying with level 1 is the lack of a sharper trough and the absence of stronger SREH.