Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 10 Jun 2020 06:00 to Thu 11 Jun 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 09 Jun 2020 21:18
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across N Italy, S Austria, Slovakia and W Hungary mainly for excessive precipitation.

A level 1 was issued from Bulgaria through Serbia, Romania, W. Ukraine, Belarus, E. Baltics into N. Russia mainly for large hail, excessive rainfall and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across N Turkey mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and to the lesser extent for heavy rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across parts of Tunisia mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Synoptic scale situation will be dominated by an extensive area of low geopotentials stretching from the UK towards Italy and a ridge over Russia. As the centre of the area of low geopotentials, in the form of a deep low, shifts southward, an increasingly easterly flow is forecast over much of Central Europe. In a large belt extending from Turkey through Balkans, eastern Central Europe into the Baltics and N Russia, abundant lower tropospheric moisture is simulated, combined with 6 - 7 K/km mid-tropospheric lapse rates, yielding an extensive area of 500 - 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE.


The highest CAPE values are forecast over N Turkey and in an area extending from W Ukraine through Belarus into the E Baltics and NW Russia. NWP simulates 10 - 15 m/s of DLS in this area and locally curved hodographs with around 150 m2/s2 of SRH in the 0-3 km layer thanks to the WAA regime. Well-organised multicells and transient supercells are forecast, with threats of large to very large hail, excessive rain and also isolated severe wind gusts. A level 2 was considered for part of the domain, but uncertainty remains regarding convective initiation / coverage over the zone of the highest CAPE.

Further west and southwest, from N Italy through S Austria into Hungary, Slovakia and E Poland, lower CAPE values, but moister profiles are forecast, shifting the main focus of severe weather activity to excessive rainfall.

Deep boundary layer, high CAPE values and steep lapse rates extending up to 600 hPa are simulated over N Turkey. Short-lived pulse storms and chaotically organised clusters are forecast given DLS mostly below 10 m/s, which may produce large hail and severe wind gusts given favourable thermodynamic profiles.

Models consistently initiate convection over parts of Tunisia, in the environment of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg and straight, long hodographs with DLS over 25 m/s. Splitting supercells are forecast with threats of large hail and severe wind gusts.