Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 27 Apr 2020 06:00 to Tue 28 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 27 Apr 2020 01:37
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 1 was issued across N Algeria and NE Morocco mainly for isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

A weak low pressure system present across western Europe has allowed warm low level air into northern Spain and France. A mid-level ridge makes place for a broad trough advancing slowly into Iberian Peninsula and France. Within this trough, several shorter wave troughs and a mid level cold front pass through this region, setting off convective activity, the most pronounced one at 09Z over SW France moving across southern France during the afternoon. A second wave after 21Z would affect the NW Mediterranean region and French coastline. Vertical wind shear is around 10 m/s 0-6 km, with only a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE not likely to produce severe weather phenomena. Over northern Africa however, a narrow convergence line with CAPE could trigger storms in moderate DLS (20 m/s) and around 250 m2/s2 SREH, which may induce rotation and increased large hail chances, as well as severe wind gusts.