Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 13 Apr 2020 06:00 to Tue 14 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 13 Apr 2020 01:26
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

No threat levels issued.

SYNOPSIS/ DISCUSSION

The northerly flow between a Scandinavian low and a Scotland high pushes a cold air mass southward into central Europe. Destabilization of the warm air by low level convergence along and ahead of the cold front should lead to significant thunderstorm activity thanks to weak capping in most places, although upper lifting mechanisms lag behind the cold front. A few hundred J/kg CAPE is possible. DLS is rather modest, highest near SE Poland where 10-15 m/s could perhaps organize storms bit better, with LCL above 1500 m, to form marginally large hail. GFS model extends the unstable zone along the cold front farther west than other models, into France.
A cold pool west of Portugal has an associated surface level trough over the Iberian Pennsula with warm, slightly unstable and weakly capped air, to produce a number of short-lived thunderstorms in a weak shear environment.