Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 09 Apr 2020 06:00 to Fri 10 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 08 Apr 2020 19:29
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued across eastern Iraq and western Iran mainly for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across Iraq, eastern Syria and southeastern Turkey mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across eastern Algeria mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

SYNOPSIS

Stable weather conditions are forecast across much of western and central Europe under the influence of an extensive high pressure system centered over the Northern Sea. A cold front is forecast to cross the Baltic Sea and continue moving SE-wards across Poland, northern Ukraine and Belarus. Due to the dry conditions, the front will be mostly devoid of any precipitation.

More active weather pattern, at least concerning the convective storms, is forecast across southern parts of the forecast domain. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast ahead of an ill-defined trough over Spain and in northwesterly flow across northern Africa. More widespread thunderstorms are anticipated over Turkey and parts of the Middle-East, under the influence of a deep mid-tropospheric low centered over Cyprus and southern Turkey.

DISCUSSION

... Southeastern Turkey, Eastern Syria, Iraq, Iran ...

Ahead of the deep mid and upper tropospheric low, strong southwesterly flow is simulated over the region, increasing from southeastern Turkey towards Iran. Especially over Iraq, moist airmass combined with steep-lapse rates exceeding 7 K/km and 0-6 km shear around 25 m/s will create favorable conditions for severe convective storms. Given the strong shear, any initiating storm may become supercell with threat of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. However, initiation remains questionable over the area of the best CAPE / shear overlap and NWP simulates only isolated storms. Thus, it seems that the hail threat will be more prominent than the wind gust threat.

Towards Iran and Turkey, models are more consistent regarding scattered to widespread initiation of the storms. Over Turkey, 0-6 km shear around 15 m/s will allow for multicells or some marginal supercells with threats of large hail or severe wind gusts.

... Eastern Algeria ...

Isolated to scattered storms are forecast in northwesterly flow, strongly increasing above 3 km. While 0-6 km shear will reach up to 25 m/s, 0-3 km shear will stay mostly below 10 m/s over the region. Given EL mostly around 500 hPa and skinny CAPE profiles, it is questionable whether the shear confined to above 3 km will aid the storm organisation or mostly only enhance the dry air entrainment through the updrafts. At least few stronger updrafts may become well organised with primary threat of large hail and a low-end Lvl 1 is introduced.