Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 01 Apr 2020 06:00 to Thu 02 Apr 2020 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 31 Mar 2020 20:04
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued across eastern Spain mainly for excessive rainfall.

A level 1 was issued across northern Algeria mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued across northern Iraq and western Iran mainly for severe wind gusts and large hail.

SYNOPSIS

An active weather pattern is forecast across the southern part of Europe and also Scandinavia. The main synoptic-scale features at mid-troposphere will be a deep-low, slowly crossing Iberia during the day, a low moving from the southern Aegean Sea towards the Balkans and a fast-moving trough crossing the Middle-East. All of the aforementioned features will be linked to thunderstorm occurrence.

DISCUSSION

...Eastern Spain...

An upslope flow is simulated in the morning hours with marginal CAPE values in the modestly moist maritime airmass. Slow storm motion may keep the storms confined to the same location, enhancing threat of local excessive rainfall.

... Northern Africa ...

PVA advection associated with the approaching low should aid in the initiation of scattered to widespread DMC over the area during the day. Forecast profiles suggest an environment of high LCLs, 15 to 20 m/s of DLS and steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Organised storms, in the form of multi- to supercells are forecast, with threats of severe wind gusts and large hail.

... Western Greece ...

Storms are forecast to form along a cold front progressing across the Ionian Sea. Strong DLS is simulated by the models and a Lvl 1 was considered. However, the storms will be low topped and much of the shear will be confined above the EL, so it will be ineffective for their organisation. Thus, the overall severe weather threat seems too low at the moment to warrant a Level.

... Northern Iraq, Western Iran ...

A band of storms is forecast to form ahead of the progressing through. Strong WAA regime is forecast just ahead of the surface cold front that will cross the region during the day. In conjunction with this regime, long and curved hodographs are simulated by the models, supporting supercells. High LCLs point at the threat of large hail and severe wind gusts. Level 2 was considered for parts of the area, but questionable initiation in the zone of the strongest shear as well as differences in CAPE magnitudes among the models preclude its issuance at the moment.